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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sunday, November 24, 2024 02:49:57

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HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals.
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Announcing WSA-Enlil model v3.0!

Illustration of WSA-Enlil Plots old versus new.
Announcing WSA-Enlil model v3.0!
published: Thursday, April 06, 2023 23:33 UTC

The Space Weather Prediction Center’s newly implemented WSA-Enlil model v3.0 consists of WSA-5.4 and Enlil-2.9e.

This upgrade has focused on the WSA model component and represents a major evolution of that model from the original implementation at SWPC (v2.2) in 2011. The aspects of this upgrade which are most impactful to operational forecasting are:

  • A retuned WSA empirical solar wind velocity relationship yields improved ambient solar wind predictions at L1

  • The model now leverages zeropoint-corrected GONG photospheric synoptic maps (mrzqs)

  • The updated Concept of Operations (CONOPS) now supports on-demand execution

In short, this upgrade incorporates an advanced version of the WSA model providing a modernized and more supportable code base, improves the fidelity of ambient solar wind predictions (consequently improving CME arrival time forecasts at Earth), and introduces the foundation for on-demand execution, freeing the operational CONOPS from the traditional 2-hour run schedule. A consequence of this revised CONOPS is the cessation of the traditional bihourly execution of the full WSA-Enlil modeling system for ambient runs (non-CME based). A single daily ambient run will be produced at 00Z. Additionally, bihourly results of the WSA model component will continue to be produced.